ANDROS–CANADA PROJECT DOSSIER

Preliminary Concept, Feasibility Strategy & Stakeholder Map

Bahamian–Canadian Sustainable Living, Tourism & Infrastructure Initiative

Prepared: September 2026

Status: Concept / pre-feasibility stage

Project sponsor: Robert Stodulka, B.Sc, O.D.— Canadian Optometrist

Backup sponsor / coordinator: to be named before Stage 0 begins (see Section 13)

Contact: Robert Stodulka — robert.stodulka@gmail.com

CONFIDENTIAL WORKING DOCUMENT

For discussion, research and stakeholder-development purposes. Not an investment offering.

Executive Summary

The originating concept is for Canada and The Bahamas to cooperate in developing a defined portion of Andros Island as a sustainable winter-living, tourism, retirement and wellness destination serving Canadian and Bahamian markets. The original idea contemplated a Canadian lease of Andros; the more politically and commercially realistic model is a Bahamian–Canadian public-private partnership or development corporation using a long-term lease or other approved land arrangement for a carefully selected site.

Preliminary research says the concept merits a formal, independent pre-feasibility study. The strongest evidence is that Andros already has a Bahamian government-backed Sustainable Development Master Plan, an established community-tourism initiative, substantial physical capacity relative to population, and a growing Canadian visitor market to The Bahamas. The principal constraints are aviation, water and other infrastructure, environmental carrying capacity, financing, legal status of long-stay visitors, and local political and community acceptance.

The official Vision 2040 resources page lists an Andros Sustainable Development Master Plan [S1] — that is a planning reference, not approval of this proposal. Demand for long stays, available accommodation, travel practicality, healthcare arrangements, and achievable prices all remain unproven. National tourism trends and low population density establish neither demand nor developable land for this specific project.

Recommended next step: run a quiet stakeholder-validation process in The Bahamas — with local residents and businesses engaged from day one, not after institutional contacts — before commissioning a full investment-grade feasibility study. The initial objective is to secure 3–5 credible Bahamian stakeholders who independently agree the concept is worth investigating.

Following that, run a 90-day validation exercise with Andros residents, local businesses, accommodation operators and prospective Canadian visitors, focused initially on one-to-three-month stays. Obtain costed options, document concerns, and check the numeric go/no-go conditions in Section 16 before deciding whether to arrange a small paid trial. A handful of supportive contacts does not establish community consent.

Evidence-confidence legend used throughout this dossier: [C] Checked against a current primary source on the date shown. [PL] Public listing checked (contact or reference page confirmed live) but not an approval, agreement, or endorsement. [U] Unverified legacy statement carried over from earlier research; treat as a lead requiring confirmation, not a fact.

1. Core Concept

Working concept: Andros–Canada Sustainable Living Initiative.

Long-term option, conditional on successful validation: a community on a suitable, limited site that could combine:

●      Canadian winter residents and snowbirds

●      permanent and seasonal retirees

●      short-stay tourism

●      Bahamian residents and local businesses

●      health and wellness services

●      nature-based tourism

●      renewable energy and resilient infrastructure

●      local employment, training and ownership

2. Recommended Positioning

A Bahamian–Canadian economic-development partnership that preserves Bahamian sovereignty and maximizes Bahamian participation.

“Canadian investment, expertise and winter-market demand combined with Bahamian land, local knowledge, tourism assets and community participation to create a climate-resilient, sustainable destination on Andros.”

Canadian winter-stay demand could support local accommodation, services and employment on Andros. Residents and local businesses would help define an appropriate scale, protect community access, and identify measurable local benefits.

3. Preliminary Development Concept

Immediate trial assumption: 6 to 10 Canadian households staying approximately four weeks in existing accommodation, with extensions considered only after review. This is a capacity and demand hypothesis to test with operators, not a booking target already supported by evidence. No new residences, hotel, marina, or airport works are required for this initial test. The table below retains the original long-term development scenario for later assessment; it is not the trial program.

Trial location screening should include practical access to groceries and meals, shaded or accessible routes, and the cost of a shared shuttle. The suggested adaptation of Warm Canada's village concept [S6] is to use existing services first.

Component

Later development assumption

Purpose

Residences

500 units

Seasonal/permanent living; mixed housing types

Hotel

100 rooms

Tourism, visitors and market validation

Health/wellness

5,000–10,000 sq. ft.

Primary care, diagnostics, telemedicine, wellness

Commercial village

20,000–30,000 sq. ft.

Food, pharmacy, retail, services

Recreation

TBD

Beach, marina, fitness, pickleball, trails, water activities

Utilities

Site-specific

Solar/battery microgrid, desalination, wastewater reuse

Transportation

Site-specific

Airport/road/ferry connections and community mobility

 

4. Why Andros

●      Large land base and low population density relative to the scale of a modest master-planned development.

●      Exceptional natural assets: barrier reef, blue holes, wetlands, mangroves, marine ecosystems and nature tourism.

●      Existing communities and transport links provide a base for inclusive rather than enclave-style development.

●      The Bahamian government has already undertaken strategic planning for sustainable development of Andros.

●      The island could potentially become a differentiated destination for longer-stay visitors rather than competing solely as another beach resort.

5. Key Evidence Identified

Each later study should record the exact source, date, geography, measure and implication for the decision. See the evidence-confidence legend on page 1.

Topic

Status

Preliminary finding

Population

[U]

2022 census population approximately 7,695. Confirm the exact census table and geographic coverage; this does not establish land capacity.

Housing

[U]

2022 census reported 5,010 dwelling units, of which 2,723 were occupied. Unoccupied dwellings must not be treated as habitable or available accommodation without inspection and owner confirmation.

Planning

[PL]

Vision 2040 lists an Andros Sustainable Development Master Plan [S1]. Site compatibility and current approval requirements remain to be established.

Canadian market

[U]

Canada is described as an important and growing source market for The Bahamas; the tourism ministry has reportedly expanded Canadian air service and marketing.

Community tourism

[U]

The Bahamas Development Bank has reportedly supported the Andros Community-Tourism Cluster Initiative.

Investment

[U]

The Bahamas actively promotes foreign investment and Family Island development incentives.

Land precedent

[U]

Recent government/central-bank material reportedly documents Crown-land investment activity on Andros.

 

6. Critical Feasibility Questions

1.   Which specific sites are legally and environmentally developable?

2.   Who owns each candidate parcel and what long-term lease/JV structures are possible?

3.   Can the project obtain necessary environmental, planning, land and investment approvals?

4.   What Canadian households would actually purchase or rent on Andros, and at what prices?

5.   Can direct winter air service from Canada be commercially supported?

6.   What water source and wastewater system can support the population without damaging groundwater or ecosystems?

7.   What electrical generation, storage and grid-resilience system is optimal?

8.   What healthcare model is financially and clinically viable?

9.   What construction costs are realistic given logistics, hurricane standards, and island supply chains?

10.      What level of Bahamian equity, employment, procurement and community benefit is appropriate?

11.      What financing structure can produce acceptable returns under conservative assumptions?

12.      How will hurricanes, sea-level rise, storm surge, insurance and climate risks affect the project?

13.      What visa, residency or work-permit status applies to Canadian visitors staying one to three months or longer, and does it change with property ownership? (new)

14.      How does Andros compare on price, travel time and amenities with established snowbird destinations (Florida, Mexico, other Caribbean islands) that Canadian households already consider? (new)

Healthcare evidence: the Government of Canada states that provincial or territorial plans may cover none or only a small part of medical costs abroad, and travel insurance rarely covers routine care [S9]. Assess routine care, emergency care and evacuation separately. Warm Canada's claims of provincial-plan acceptance are not a confirmed arrangement [S5].

6A. Legal and Immigration Status of Long-Stay Visitors (New Section)

Neither prior draft addressed the legal basis on which Canadian households would remain on Andros for four, eight or twelve weeks, or longer. This is a gating question, not a detail to resolve after a trial books:

●      Confirm the maximum stay permitted to Canadian visitors under current Bahamian immigration rules without a visa or permit, and whether repeated back-to-back visits are treated differently from a single extended stay.

●      Confirm whether property ownership, a long-term lease, or enrolment in a government-recognized residency or investment program would change permitted stay length, tax residency, or work rights.

●      Confirm whether operating a paid local-interview or trial program constitutes a business activity requiring separate registration or permits, distinct from the visitors' own status.

●      Document findings with a dated citation to the responsible Bahamian immigration authority before the Stage 1 study is commissioned, since this affects the achievable stay length used in every other market and financial assumption.

7. Preliminary Capital Envelope

The original rough planning envelope for the 500-residence and 100-room development is US$395–695 million; its arithmetic midpoint is US$545 million. These are retained planning assumptions, not a professional estimate or a budget for the winter-stay trial. The trial requires a separate, operator-based cost model.

Cost completeness review: obtain explicit inclusions or separate allowances for land or lease premiums, legal and approval fees, taxes and duties, insurance, financing and interest, marketing and sales, furniture and equipment, pre-opening costs, operating cash, escalation and contingency. Check whether roads/utilities overlaps with separately listed water and energy works. No omissions or overlaps have been priced here.

Category

Preliminary range (US$)

Residential construction

$175–275M

Hotel

$35–60M

Roads/utilities

$50–100M

Water/wastewater

$20–40M

Solar/microgrid

$15–30M

Medical/community

$15–30M

Marina/recreation

$15–30M

Airport/transport contribution

$20–50M

Design/engineering/contingency

$50–80M

Total

~$395–695M

 

7.1 Currency and Exchange-Rate Exposure (New)

Appendix A already asks each visiting household to track its own CAD outlay against exchange-rate risk. The project entity carries a separate exposure that prior drafts did not name: capital raised is most likely CAD/USD, Bahamian construction and land costs are BSD (pegged 1:1 to USD, which limits — but does not eliminate — this leg of the risk), and any operator-share revenue collected from Canadian bookings will typically arrive in CAD or USD depending on how the booking is processed.

●      Before Stage 1, decide and record which currency each cost and revenue line will be modelled in, and at what date's exchange rate.

●      Identify who bears the risk of CAD/USD movement between a household's booking date and its stay date — the operator, the project, or the household — and state this in the operator package (Appendix A) and in any future investor material.

●      Flag CAD/USD or CAD/BSD movement as a named line in the Stage 2 risk analysis, not folded into general financing risk.

8. Recommended Feasibility Process

Stage 0 is a gate, not a parallel track: no paid outreach, and no Stage 1 commissioning, until Stage 0 produces the 3–5 independent, credible Bahamian stakeholders described in the Executive Summary. Local resident and business input is sought within Stage 0 itself, alongside institutional contacts, rather than after them.

Stage 0 — Stakeholder validation

4–8 weeks. Quietly test the concept with government, investment, community and local business stakeholders. Discuss the concept with residents, local business owners and operators at the outset, alongside institutional enquiries. Record positive, neutral and negative views, alternative proposals, and concerns about access, resources and local benefits. Proposed external spending cap: CAD$0, using desk research and voluntary remote interviews. Any paid help requires a separately agreed scope and budget.

Stage 1 — Concept validation

US$10,000–25,000. Preliminary site, regulatory, market and development screening. Does not begin until the Stage 0 gate (above) is met.

Stage 2 — Pre-feasibility

US$30,000–75,000. Site alternatives, market study, infrastructure screening, capital model, operating model, economic impact and risk analysis.

Stage 3 — Investment-grade feasibility

Potentially US$150,000–500,000+. Detailed surveys, engineering, environmental work, legal structuring, stakeholder consultation and finance-grade modelling. This allowance is unverified and may not cover all required work; separate professional fees from surveys, investigations, applications and other external costs.

9. Recommended RFP Scope

●      Identify and rank 3–5 candidate sites on Andros.

●      Conduct preliminary land ownership, tenure and development-rights review.

●      Review compatibility with the Andros Sustainable Development Master Plan.

●      Conduct Canadian and international long-stay/retirement tourism market research.

●      Benchmark Andros against established snowbird destinations (e.g., Florida, Mexico, other Caribbean islands) on price, travel time, healthcare access and amenities for the same household profile. (new)

●      Test purchase and rental price points with prospective customers.

●      Assess existing airports, ferry links, roads and likely direct Canadian air-service requirements.

●      Develop preliminary water, wastewater, energy and telecommunications strategies.

●      Complete environmental and climate-risk screening.

●      Confirm visa, residency and work-permit requirements for long-stay Canadian visitors under current Bahamian law. (new)

●      Develop a preliminary master plan and development program.

●      Prepare capital and operating cost estimates, with currency basis and exchange-rate assumptions stated explicitly. (updated)

●      Prepare 10–20 year financial projections with conservative/base/optimistic scenarios.

●      Calculate IRR, NPV, break-even occupancy/sales, debt capacity, and sensitivity to construction costs, air service and currency movement. (updated)

●      Estimate Bahamian employment, tax, procurement and local-business impacts.

●      Recommend ownership, lease/JV and governance structures.

●      Identify approvals, incentives and government interfaces.

●      Provide a go/no-go recommendation and requirements for a full feasibility study.

10. Stakeholder and Champ